Final Oscar Predictions

Between the initial calculations and now, my Box Office Power Rankings-derived formula has not changed its Oscar conclusion: No Country for Old Men is still your Best Picture winner on Sunday.

The only movement involved the improved fortunes of There Will Be Blood and Atonement at the expense of Michael Clayton. The final standings: No Country for Old Men (15.0 points); Juno (14.3 points); There Will Be Blood (13.3 points); Atonement (10.7 points); and Michael Clayton (6.7 points).

The order feels intuitively correct, and the only thing that would surprise me (and rebuke my methodology) would be a Best Picture win by Atonement or Michael Clayton.

That said, I will defy my own carefully considered formula and predict a Juno win. No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood are too similar in tone, and both are too open.

You can make your own prediction at this Culture Snob poll.

I keep thinking Atonement is going to pull a surprise win like Shakespeare in Love did over Saving Private Ryan. Atonement just feels like an Oscar-friendlier flick over the killers, oil tyrants & pregnant teens its competing against. But I’m hoping for the Coens to pull out a win.

Chris: As much as people are predicting with certainty a No Country win, I agree that this race could go any way.

Many people passionately love the Coens’ and Anderson’s movies, but they’re difficult. Juno is popular. Atonement reeks of Oscar bait. And Michael Clayton might be the safest of the bunch, with its anti-corporate politics and crowd-pleasing finale.

Leave a comment

Latest Twitter Review

  • The awaited Jacob/MIB episode of ‘Lost’ was penned by series bigwigs but merely underlined already-obvious moral relativism. Gallingly dull.
    > More Twitter updates

Recent Comments

  • I think your interpretation is right, and hinted at in the script: “When the sunshine don’t work, the Good Lord bring the rain in.”
  • “Don’t follow your dick.” I suppose there are many ways to interpret what we’ve just seen in TRANSIT. I suppose I find it a...
  • A wonderful list! And it feels all the more awesome because I can confidently say I’ve watched the first 8 movies with my daughter (barring...
  • It doesn’t matter that you don’t buy it, Solondz wasn’t selling it in the first place. Fuck meeting the audience halfway. There’s nothing wrong with...
  • Awesome analysis, one of the best i have read yet.